"the war room" jthere's tension, and then there is what you get when you are eleven days away from a political election. drink it in you political junkies. as hurricane sandy threatens to up end the end of the campaign mitt romney deals with more hot air, his surrogates. they collectively try to make the candidate's last days on the campaign trail as uncomfortable as possible. surely an onstage appearance with meatloaf will right ship. ♪ >> jennifer: all right. that was way over the top. i think i better get away from him. i'm just going to slowly walk over here and stand by this guy with the hat. it's a little better i guess.

geez louise how come every single time i try to sing this song, it turns into a train wreck for me. [♪ theme music ♪] >> jennifer: there are now just eleven days until the election and the president's message is very simple every vote counts. today he took that idea to young voters in an interview with mtv. >> don't believe this idea that your vote does not matter. in 2000 in gore versus bush 537 votes changed the direction of history. and the same thing could happen here. so there's no excuse regardless of who you vote for, folks get to need out there and vote. >> jennifer: so where does the

race stand right now? there's good news and bad news and i'm going to give you the bad news first. mitt romney now leads the president by about one point nationally 49-48%? an abc "washington post" poll out today, a very narrow lead but still a lead. among independent voters romney is ahead even more. poll tracker shows that romney is up and it really pains me to say this but he is up by six points among independents. but stay with me here is the good news, a new batch of swing state polls shows in the battleground states the president is gaining ground. let's take a look at today's swing state showdown for the latest. according to today's poll tracker average, the president holds the lead in seven of nine swing states. mitt romney is just ahead in two

of them. we'll take a look at l thesewo mittttomomy y atat firsrs florida and north carolina. in north carolina mitt romney has a 2-point lead. this is again today's polls. he is also ahead in florida, but by actually less than a point. as for the president, he is ahead in these seven swing states but extremely small margins. as you can see, no more than three points in any of these states, all within the margin of error, but the momentum actually seems to be moving in the president's direction. let's take a look at virginia. we're seeing a trend there that is interesting, and playing out in several swing states. the president was up early, right? this was the 47% video, and he did well -- he was doing well at that point, but romney made his big jump after that first debate, and that's where we

crossed, but now you see that romney is coming back down and the president is actually retaking the lead after that. so the good news is that there does seem to be a shift in that momentum. now, what -- the next version of this is, so that the president has -- after he has gained the lead, we know we have got more than just trend lines to go on. we have early voting as well and as of today, 9 million voters have already cast ballots. 9 million. that is on track to beat 2008's record when a third of all ballots were cast early. and in states that report results by party, democrats hold a lead. take a look. in iowa the president is up 13% in early voting. in nevada he is up 8%. in ohio he is up 21 points. and in north carolina the president is leading among early

voters by 19%. in other states like virginia they don't give out early voting numbers by party, but here is what we do know in virginia. about 5% of virginia voters have already cast a ballots and the majority of those are women, and that's very good us in because the president has manage to hold his lead with female voters in virginia. female voters favor the president in virginia. after all of these polls and numbers and estimates from today, what is the big take away? well nate silver is "the war room"'s math guru and he factors in everything. he factors in national polls, swing state polls, early-voting numbers and historical patterns and economic forecasts, and

today nate silver is predicting that -- drum roll -- the president has a 74.4% chance of winning. now that is a full six and a half points higher than just a week ago. so like the economy, this election seems to be heading in the right direction. now we have got the get the word from the ground. so joining us is brian moran. he is coming to us from washington, d.c. virginia went blue last election, and chairman moran is trying to keep that it way. brian welcome inside "the war room." >> thank you very much. and might i say to you, thank you so much for joining us in the commonwealth and virginia democrats would love to have you return as soon as possible. >> jennifer: well, thank you.

when i was there two weekends ago there was a lot of great energy with these polls that have come out since being a bit of a mixed bag. i'm wondering if you can tell our viewers what is the vealing on the ground? >> it continues to be very exciting. just to follow up on your presentation. all along we have felt confident in virginia because of the grown game. we have a superior ground game. it is the largest we have ever seen in virginia history. it actually surpasses that in 2008. so we feel real good. we are located in every region of virginia and almost every community of the commonwealth. we have personnel, volunteers so we are getting the vote out and we'll deliver on november 6th for the president. >> jennifer: all right. we're counting on you, man, as you know. i know virginia does have a

phenomenal organization and all of the 5% of the people who have voted early, do you have any internal information that would lead you to know whether -- what percentage of those are democrats? >> well we do. and it is imprecise because we do not have party registration so we look on the numbers based on what happened in 2008. so in those areas that the president won, those areas have turned out to a higher degree than the precincts won by john mccain. it is about a 90,000 to 70,000 percent -- number about 54 to 46% obama precincts have turned out. and we're very pleased with that, so i think you can make a conclusion that the early vote is coming out for the president, and that's a trend we need to carry over the next ten days.

bile kicking off about a half a dozen canvases tomorrow. we would encourage people to early vote tomorrow as you go out to buy batteries and bread tomorrow put on the list voting. vote early. go to gottavote.com to find out where you can vote early. >> jennifer: brian is the hurricane projected to have an impact in virginia? >> well, we don't know. we're watching it very closely as of now we're continuing all of our activities over the weekend -- >> jennifer: it's a little further north, i believe. what part of the state are you as chairman most concerned about? is it the d.c. suburbs or other parts of the state that might need more convincing?

>> because of the substantial ground game we have we are pulling votes out of every area of virginia. in terms of the large turnout in swing counties we are concentrating on northern virginia, the exsurbs around richmond city and hampton rhodes. large latino registration since 2008 about a 20% increase in latino registration. and also young people. so those are areas where we're really pushing to make sure the vote comes out on november 6th. >> jennifer: it is safe to say the biggest part of your effort will be getting out the vote rather than persuasion?

really a huge effort is in gotv right? >> the persuasion eh fore has been going on. this effort has been working for weeks, months even. so persuasion has gone on and certainly over the next eleven to ten days here it is a get out to vote now, which is a two-step process in virginia. because we don't have voter registration. we have to identify someone who is leaning our way, and make sure they get out and exercise their fundamental right to vote. in 2008 we had a 75% turnout. so we're really pushing, the largest the turnout the better -- >> jennifer: talk to me quickly, the republican's ground game. we only have about 30 seconds, but what are they going to get out the vote that you have seen?

>> a lot of television. i have received mail for the governor romney. i'm not going to vote for him -- >> jennifer: so they are wasting money. >> yes. fine, send me all you want. so that tells me they don't have good lists, they are shotgunning approach to this and mailing to everyone -- >> jennifer: are they going canvassing? >> i have not seen evidence of it, but -- >> jennifer: okay. tell them all to stay home. really mr. chairman thank you so much for coming inside "the war room" on a friday night to give our viewers a sense of what is going on in the all-important swing state of virginia. coming up if you really want to know what mitt romney would do to the economy just picture what would have happened if the

red bull guy's parachute didn't open. plus romney surrogates trying to one-up each other in a race to the bottom. and we'll continue our series on the selling of the presidents with a look at the world's very first campaign ad. it's thomas jefferson said that a successful democracy depended on an informed electorate. our country's future depends on you. to help you make informed decisions, watch current tv's politically direct lineup. only on current tv. take the time to learn about the issues. don't just vote, vote smart.

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>> jennifer: now nate silver's number from the new york times that we just talked about that president obama has a 74.4% chance of being reelected, it does seem curious, right? if this race is so close, why does nate silver give the president such a high chance of winning? well it could be the president's strong on the ground machine. it could be the obama momentum, or it just could be what is happening in the economy. now mitt romney said in an economic speech today that he is about real change big change and the president, he says is about the status quo. >> romney: our campaign is about big things because we happen to believe that america faces big challenges. this election is a choice a

choice between the status quo, going forward with the same policies of the last four years, or instead choosing real change. >> jennifer: now the dictionary definition of status quo means the existing state of affairs. and here is what the economic state of affairs looks like under president obama. in this case status quo means movement, progress you want evidence? okay. it was announced today that the economy grew at 2% in the third quarter of this year, after having ground 1.3% in the second quarter. it's progress. it's not fantastic, but steady progress nonetheless. more evidence the labor department said thursday that unemployment benefit applications last week dropped by a surprising 23,000 which suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment

rate and of course the actual unemployment rate at 7.8% is the lowest that it has been since president obama took office. more evidence there have been 5.2 million private sector jobs created in the past 31 months. president obama takes office here and boom the stimulus starts to kick in. 5.2 million. why did the gdp grow more than last quarter? because consumer confidence is at a five-year high. the stock market is near a five-year high. the -- the corporate profits are at a five-year high new housing starts are at a five-year high. foreclosures are at a four-year low. evidence of progress. this is an interesting piece of

evidence. the growth of government spending is the lowest that it has been in 60 years, since eisenhower. eisenhower's growth of spending was 3.2%. look at this. kennedy, johnson, carter 13%. reagan george w. bush, obama 1.4%. that is the growth of government spending. now that that you just saw here that is the so-called status quo, progress. so if mitt romney's big change means he is going to skew the tax code in favor of the folks at the top, you can have that kind of change. if mitt romney's kind of change is to change back to george w. bush's policies, that's the kind of change i can't believe in. that's the kind of change we do not need. we're not at the promise land

yet, but we are on the right track, and you are going to decide in eleven days whether we're going to turn back. up next if i didn't know better, i would say mitt romney's surrogates held a contest this week. let's see who can say something so outrageous that the can digit will have to go onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them. that's why at devry university we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help make sure everyone is ready with the know-how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure america's ready. make sure you're ready. at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪ ♪ nah, he's probably got... [ dennis' voice ] allstate. they can bundle all your policies

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somebody of your own race that you are proud of being president of the united states i applaud colin for standing with him. >> i struggled with it for a long time but i came to realize that life is a gift from god, and even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape it is something that god intended to happen. >> if barack obama opens up and gives his college records and applications, and if he gives his pass port applications and records, i will give to a charity of his choice a check, immediately, for $5 million. >> jennifer: i'm just saying. you know what really bugs me about the comments in the context of the presidential race? these guys are all tightly connected to mitt romney. john sununu is an active romney surrogate as he basically says

that colin powell endorsed president obama because he is black. donald trump you know, he has been doing robo calls and endorsements for mitt romney. despite the fact that these guys are supporters and allies mitt romney has not personally refuted a single one of their offensive statements. he has actually been running from the media, hoping hoping it all dies down please go away. he could certainly learn a thing, mitt romney could, about being courageous from john mccain. remember in 2008 when john mccain stood up to the people who thought president obama

administration was a muslim. >> no man. he is not. thank you. thank you. [ applause ] >> jennifer: john mccain earned a lot of respect for standing up and being honest. mitt romney remains silent. silence in the face of these kind of comments is unacceptable. there's a saying that goes not to speak is to speak. not to act is to act. joining me from washington to discuss the republican's race to the bottom is democratic strategist and syndicated columnist karl frisch, and coming to us from boston is charlie pierce, contributing editor of "esquire" magazine. both of you gentlemen welcome back inside "the war room." >> good evening, governor. >> hello, governor. how are you? >> jennifer: i am great. charlie let me start with you. how it is that mitt romney can continue to affiliation himself

with people who make inane comments like those. >> first of all the jesuate fathers thought me [ inaudible ] he is silent gives consent. why has he gotten away with it -- >> jennifer: why hasn't he said anything at all. >> because he doesn't have to. he has gotten away with everything else. i wish i had a nickel for every pundit who told me last february, oh he has got to release the tax returns. guess what he hasn't released the tax returns and he is not going to do the next ten days. they telegraph the etch-a-sketch punch six months ago. they said he was going to start lying.

and he started right on schedule. and he has gotten away with it. so why wouldn't he get away with chloroforming the crypt keeper and bringing john sununu back. [ laughter ] >> jennifer: i don't know that you can top that karl so i'm going to flip the conversation for a second because the president has been making himself available. >> right. >> jennifer: and one of the things he did today was he went to an interview with mtv. and i want you to listen to what the president said today about gay marriage. >> obama: for us to try to legislate federally into this area is probably the wrong way to go. >> jennifer: now there were some on the left who were critical of that -- of those statements. do you think -- how do you think that is going to play with the gay democrats who have been really supportive of the

president. >> i don't think they will be too happy about it. but what is their choice? this is a president who supports marriage equality and the initiatives that are going to bring marriage equality to states and the department of justice has been remarkable in the fight to overturn doma so i think he's on the right side here even if he is not moving quite quickly enough. it is a much better choice than mitt romney who held secret meetings with gay republicans at a farm in virginia, and it was not a closet in the superbs, where he apparently promised a few things here and there to get their endorsement. and i have no doubt in my head that lgbt people will help give the president the boost he needs to get reelected and they'll have a lot to ask from him.

>> jennifer: so he ran as far away to a rural farm so no cameras could see him in connection with the gays he was meeting with? >> everything we have talked about tonight has been about romney preserving his base support. because his entire candidacy has been telegraphed around the worry that the base will fall away. >> jennifer: you have just outed him, though my friend. >> well it will take a lot more than me. [ laughter ] >> jennifer: charlie on this mtv interview, at another point, president obama was asked about climate change and he had this to say. >> we're not moving as fast as we need to and this is an issue that future generations, mtv viewers are going to have to be dealing with, even more than the older generation is. >> jennifer: to me that is very

interesting. do you think that environmentalists might see a general statement like that as just kicking the can down the road? >> i think environmentalists saw him kicking the can down the road by the fact that we had four debates and climate change didn't come up once. in the foreign policy debate teacher's unions and the national debt got more at attention that climate change did. and this week they have a result of climate change blowing right up their shorts on the east coast. so future historians assuming they are any, are going to look at this time in history and think we're all out of our minds. >> charlie the hurricane is coming for that reason when we all know that it is because

governor romney capitlated at a farm in virginia. [ laughter ] >> jennifer: stay right there. we'll tell you what hurricane sandy could mean for the election. plus believe it or not, there was a time when people watching tv would the one time it's okay for you to miss my show is if that's the only time you can get to a polling place. make sure that voting is your highest priority on election day. besides, you can always dvr my show. you really cant' dvr the future of the country. to help you make informed decisions, watch current tv's politically direct lineup. only on current tv. so vote and vote smart.

♪ >> read my lips. ♪ >> jennifer: you are back inside "the war room." i'm jennifer granholm. if you feel like there has been a lot more presidential campaign tv commercials this year than there was in 2008 you would be right. four years ago, about 637,000 adsed a aired at this point in the race. this year that number has sky rock setted to 915,000 commercials, a 44% increase. unbelievable. enough to make you long for the days when political tv ads were a novelty.

well, tonight in part two of our eight-part series the selling of the presidents. barry lank takes us back to when it all began. >> it was 1952 television was the big new thing. >> eisenhower answers america. >> dwight eisenhower's team lead the way to bring the candidate right into america's living rooms. >> help me put the lid on crazy government spending. >> the ads were very effective. they made more than 40 eisenhower america spots. >> the camera in eisenhower was looking up to him, and the voters voters -- he was looking down a

bit. adley stevens felt it was not proper to run the ads. >> eisenhower won by a landslide. and then stevens was running in his own television ads. >> jennifer: those were the days. now i'm joined again by charlie pierce and karl frisch. karl i want to read you this about campaign tv ads.

do you agree? >> yes. [ laughter ] >> i think anybody who has ever been a part of making television commercials can tell you that. and it's particularly true when budgets of money is being spent. let's say you are running for congress. it's great to have millions of dollars, and have millions of dollars spent on your behalf but at a certain point, all of the ads in the world can't get you elected. you can look at examples all over the country of wealthy people who have poured tens of millions of dollars in their own candidacy, and gone on to lose. >> jennifer: and charlie, 2 billion or whatever the number is now that is being spent on these ads. they were saying in ohio there

have been so many ads that have been run, that you could watch straight 24 hours a day for 80 days, and that would be the amount of time you would have to spend in front of the tv right. >> well, you can also drive penny nails into your eyeballs with a pal peen hammer but i wouldn't recommend it. look i live in massachusetts i don't even know this president. >> jennifer: i'm going to talk to you about that in one second. but let me ask you about the storm. charlie everybody is talking about the frankenstorm how might that affect the election? i would love both of your take on that? >> i think, number 1, it is going to blow up the last week of the campaign. mitt romney has already canceled a rally in virginia beach.

in terms of the presidential race, it will material effect virginia north carolina and new hampshire. everything else is pretty blue in the eye of this storm, but since the election is going to be contained within what i call the margin of shicanary, who can tell. >> jennifer: go ahead, karl. >> i don't think tagg owns the voting machines in those states, though. i think whenever you have got inclement weather it's a certain, especially for democrats who are relying heavily on early voting in these states. so people need to get to the polls before it hits land here. this isn't the first time that bad weather has hit near or around an election, and if it's not happening on election day, i

think it's probably a distraction for a couple of days, and then we'll get on with the business of turning out the vote. >> if i show up to vote and jim cantor is standing in my polling place. i'm out of there. [ laughter ] >> jennifer: some people have suggested that the hurricane could be sort of an october surprise that nobody intended of course. but karl if the hurricane isn't the october surprise there was an eye-opening event yesterday. there was a group of 70 ceos of the country's biggest companies, all who signed on to a plan that called for an balanced approach to solve the deficit, and that balanced approach that all of these ceos signed on to included revenues. do you think their clout could actually move compromise even in the people who signed pledges

never to raise revenue? >> no. >> jennifer: that's so depressing. >> call me a cynic. i'm just a realist. the truth is the patriotic millionaires these conservative economies, liberal economists you can look everything to find people to say you need an balanced approach thank colludes tax increases and cuts in spending, but fortunately you have a group of people in washington and mitt romney who have forsaken their oath to the constitution in favor of a blood oath they signed for grover norquist. >> jennifer: and charlie i want to make sure the senate remains in democratic hands. you are in a key state, you have written about elizabeth warren and scott brown give us a quick

update. >> she has a small working margin right now in most polls. she is going to have to run the race all the way to the wire though. he has parts of the state where he is still very popular. he had three things going for him, and one of the biggest things was that people liked him. he is running a very unlikable campaign. and he has committed unforced error after unforced error, and just said we discover the national right to life committee funneled $45,000 into his campaign. >> jennifer: wow. >> i think she is in good shape, but she will be have to be a good candidate all the way into election day. >> jennifer: wow. thank you guys so much for joining us inside "the war room," karl frisch charlie pierce. up next there is nothing like

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in vision or hearing. this is the age of taking action. viagra. talk to your doctor. see if america's most prescribed ed treatment is right for you. >> jennifer: this past week foreign policicy presidential debate is not going to be the last that we hear before the election about the killings of the united states ambassador to libya, christopher stevens and other americans. the republicans have not let up on this issue. and the latest comes from fox news today which cited unnamed sources saying cia sources were told stand down. and here is the reaction from the fox panel on "the five." >> this administration is

becoming the world's largest clown car with this many jack asses that could run tours of the grand canyon. >> i want to know if leon panetta was the one that said standown. >> did he really need an intelligence assessment to know that a post gadhafi situation wasn't dangerous. >> jennifer: joining us now is ethan chorin. in 2004 ethan was one of the first american diplomats to reestablish relations with tiply. his latest book "exit the colonel: the hidden history of the libyan revolution" was released this week. welcome inside "the war room." >> thanks for having me. >> jennifer: you have such an

intense experience in libya, i'm wondering what is the biggest misconception about libya that you have heard in this election? >> i think part of the problem is that libya has been so unknown for so long that there's a huge void in to which people are projecting all kinds of thoughts and emotions, and basically, i think the obama -- the way that the obama administration has handled libya has been nothing short of brilliant. >> jennifer: why do you say that? >> he dared back in 2009 with the new beginning speech in cairo, to change the status quo. he was probably surprised to be called on that so quickly, but libya was practically the one place in the region in which an intervention could be successful. >> jennifer: libya, obviously

the benghazi issue was the subject on "the five" panel. but you think the overall trajectory has been good. do you think that libya itself has been political fodder improperly in this election? >> of course. any killing of a u.s. ambassador is going to bed to nel this kind of season. but he believed in libya and the cause in which he risked his life, avenue the dangers, and the libbian people loved him for it. i was in benghazi during the attack and the outpouring of emotion on the part of the libbians was palpable. >> jennifer: and he actually did resist some of the overintrusive security measures so he could be more connected; is that try?

>> he had several roles before the ambassadorship and his hallmark was to go out and meet the people and talk about their concerns. >> jennifer: what surprised you most about your research in the start of the revolution? >> well, there are a whole range of things that surprised me. i had an inkling of this having been posted there for two years, but one was the way the bush administration -- the narratives that were constructed to establish the [ inaudible ] with libya. >> jennifer: tell me. >> essentially the idea that gadhafi was so scared by the image of saadam hussein pulled from a spider hole that he coughed up weapons of mass destruction -- >> jennifer: and that was not

true? were you ever in contact with gadhafi? >> i had -- i was sent to listen to his speeches. there were lots of antics there. one image that sticks in my mind is his secretary -- his protocol person wielding a whip with the audience and if people weren't jumping up with great pleasure with what he said the guy would come and whack them on the back. that is simply stage craft, but he used it to disarm people and confuse, and the west didn't quite figure it out in time. >> jennifer: you have done a very extensive and first-hand view of the situation. "exit the colonel: the hidden history of the libyan revolution." ethan chorin, author. thank you so much for joining us inside "the war room." >> thanks for having me.

>> jennifer: coming up brett ehrlich will put the wraps on this week and get you ready for it's go time. it's go time. it's go time. go time. you know what time it is. go time. it's go time. it's go time. what time is it rob? here comes the young turks go time! it's go time. oh is it? then it's go. go. go. go. go. go. go. go time. anybody? anybody? what time is it? oh, right. go time! brought to you by the kia optima limited mid-size sedan. elegance, performance, technology.

what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them. that's why at devry university we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help make sure everyone is ready with the know-how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure america's ready. make sure you're ready. at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪ ♪

>> jennifer: from meatloaf to done at trump, quite a few people lost their minds this

week, but now we turn to brett ehrlich. shhhh, brett's talking now. >> well, there are eleven days to the election and i hate to see how crazy they will be given how bonkers this week has been. donald trump offered to give $5 million to charity, if obama would turn over what he says are low college transcript rate. and now know all of the things that i thought this guy would go to jail for, it was not tax revagus. >> and here is a claimed video of president obama's birth in kenya.

is that this real? it makes the president the first baby to have a birth weight of over 23 pounds. that's a big baby. and then mitt romney appears in defiance ohio. ♪ >> well there you have it meatloaf endorsing romney and so does double cheeseburger. i'm done talking now. ♪ >> jennifer: thanks for joining us here on "the war room," everybody. have a great night, and a wonderful weekend. please make sure you get out and vote if you are in an early voting state, and go tigers. ♪ sue sa. that's it now. we'll see you next week. >> cenk: welcome to "the young turks." let's have a little bit of fun.